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What are the odds that I'll get a cross?

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#1 dragon49


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Posted 05 December 2018 - 11:26 PM

A few years ago, I grew two varieties in buckets:


1 - Pimenta de Neyde X Bhut Jolokia

2 - Yellow 7 Pot



The buckets were outside and literally right next to each other.


I collected seeds from around 70 different ripe PDN pods; each pod's seeds in a separately labeled Ziploc.


The Pimenta de Neyde X Bhut Jolokia is a Capsicum chinense x Capsicum annuum cross and the Yellow 7 Pot is a Capsicum chinense.


I'm going to grow out some of the PDN seeds next season and would welcome a cross.  Given the varieties and the proximity of the grow, for each PDN x Bhut pod that I harvested, what are the odds that it came from a flower that was cross pollinated with a Yellow 7 Pot flower?


To be clear for the science, the PDN x Bhuts came from PDN x Bhut F7 seeds, but I'm assuming that it was stable by then and we can leave the "F" stuff out of the equation.  Please correct me I am wrong.


I know it's hard to get a precise answer, but would like to get a cross and want to know how many PDN x Bhut seeds (from different pods) I need to grow out to get a realistic change of getting one.  I lack the resources to grow out 70+ seeds,  but would like to give it my best shot.  I'll do my best to isolate whatever I grow out, to assure that I'm keeping that strain pure.



Edited by dragon49, 05 December 2018 - 11:28 PM.

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#2 rghm1u20


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Posted 06 December 2018 - 12:12 AM

Find some friends or a place to your relatives to grow all of them, or as much as possible. Or grow some this year and the rest next year.

John 14:6 / Hebrews 11:1

#3 CaneDog


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Posted 07 December 2018 - 02:02 AM

Hey Dragon.  Here's a link to a White Hot Peppers page stating that a tracking of non isolated seeds grown the following season led to true seeds in 75% - 80% of the resulting plants. 




It sounds like the test was somewhat informal - no large sample set, etc. - and there could be numerous different variables between those conditions and yours, especially pollinating insect activity, but perhaps that provides a reasonable range.  Let's assume with only 2 plants you had less insect activity therefore a higher chance of true seeds. i.e., failure to cross, say 85%.  So, with 4 plants your failure likelihood % is .85^5=52%.  Increase the number of plants and decrease your likelihood of failure to cross - 5(44%), 6(38%), 7(32%), 8(27%), 9(23%), 10(20%), 11(17%), 12(14%).


Can't say 85% true 15% cross is accurate, but maybe this helps some.


Good luck!

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