breeding What are the odds that I'll get a cross?

A few years ago, I grew two varieties in buckets:
 
1 - Pimenta de Neyde X Bhut Jolokia
2 - Yellow 7 Pot
 
 
The buckets were outside and literally right next to each other.
 
I collected seeds from around 70 different ripe PDN pods; each pod's seeds in a separately labeled Ziploc.
 
The Pimenta de Neyde X Bhut Jolokia is a Capsicum chinense x Capsicum annuum cross and the Yellow 7 Pot is a Capsicum chinense.
 
I'm going to grow out some of the PDN seeds next season and would welcome a cross.  Given the varieties and the proximity of the grow, for each PDN x Bhut pod that I harvested, what are the odds that it came from a flower that was cross pollinated with a Yellow 7 Pot flower?
 
To be clear for the science, the PDN x Bhuts came from PDN x Bhut F7 seeds, but I'm assuming that it was stable by then and we can leave the "F" stuff out of the equation.  Please correct me I am wrong.
 
I know it's hard to get a precise answer, but would like to get a cross and want to know how many PDN x Bhut seeds (from different pods) I need to grow out to get a realistic change of getting one.  I lack the resources to grow out 70+ seeds,  but would like to give it my best shot.  I'll do my best to isolate whatever I grow out, to assure that I'm keeping that strain pure.
 
Thanks!

Find some friends or a place to your relatives to grow all of them, or as much as possible. Or grow some this year and the rest next year.

Hey Dragon.  Here's a link to a White Hot Peppers page stating that a tracking of non isolated seeds grown the following season led to true seeds in 75% - 80% of the resulting plants. 
 
https://www.whitehotpeppers.com/collections/non-isolated
 
It sounds like the test was somewhat informal - no large sample set, etc. - and there could be numerous different variables between those conditions and yours, especially pollinating insect activity, but perhaps that provides a reasonable range.  Let's assume with only 2 plants you had less insect activity therefore a higher chance of true seeds. i.e., failure to cross, say 85%.  So, with 4 plants your failure likelihood % is .85^5=52%.  Increase the number of plants and decrease your likelihood of failure to cross - 5(44%), 6(38%), 7(32%), 8(27%), 9(23%), 10(20%), 11(17%), 12(14%).
 
Can't say 85% true 15% cross is accurate, but maybe this helps some.
 
Good luck!

Hi
 
if you want a cross, how don't you force it? like in this video
good luck

I have found that most plants will remain true most of the time. Thats about it.

Sometimes the pollinators will visit more than one plant at a time and sometimes they wont.
Bees are very intelligent and try not to cross pollinate. Peppers might confuse them because the plants look the same, but they might know the difference, I dont know. If the plants are touching maybe they will cross easier. I try to keep them as far apart as possible when I dont want a cross and it seems to work. You cant guarantee 100% pure seed unless you have something like 1/4 mile between different kinds of plants or if the plants are not able to cross.

I have two ghost pepper plants in the house that I hand pollinate with a little paintbrush. Im sure if I had another variety I would have crosses if I used the same brush. Pollen sticks to everything.

Isaaccarlson said:

I have found that most plants will remain true most of the time. Thats about it.
You cant guarantee 100% pure seed unless you have something like 1/4 mile between different kinds of plants or if the plants are not able to cross.

 

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Isolation is a great way to secure pure seed. For someone who is only looking to isolate a few pods, it's as easy as using those organza bags to isolate certain buds before they open.. Dollar Tree carries them in packs of 8, but you can probably find them cheaper. Plastic baggies work too, but wouldn't be my first choice. Toulle or similar material for whole plants/rows(confirmed by Jim Morrow). I intend on using 1 and 5 gallon Paint strainers to try and isolate small plants outdoors as well as my greenhouse. 
 
As far as securing crosses goes.. Isolation w/cross pollination. There are some awesome Youtube videos out there on the process. Khang Starr's "Cross Pollinating to Create a New Variety" was a great video, detailing things someone starting out might not understand.