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THP Member Contest - Kentucky Derby Day 2011

This Saturday May 7th is the 137 running of the Kentucky Derby.
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Growing up 2 blocks from Churchill Downs, always made the first Saturday in May seem like a holiday.
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On Derby eve, friends and family from all over the country (and Canada) came to our house to reminisce and talk about which entry they were going to bet that year….and why.

Us kids would camp out in the back yard or sleep in someone’s travel van, leaving bed space for the adults to crash, after sipping on Falls City Beer until the wee hours.

The next morning my mom fried several chickens for bag lunches and beginning around 7:30 am she’d shuttle multiple carloads over to the racetrack for the daylong festivities.

Picking the winning Derby horse not only resulted in a monetary reward, but most importantly brought lifelong bragging rights of having picked the winner of The Kentucky Derby.

All day long on Derby Day, you can overhear folks talking about “My Derby horse”…or “ who I’ve got” in the Derby…. as though they actually own the horse they are rooting for.

And believe me, when your choice in the Derby actually gets a call coming down the homestretch…. and you think you might have the winner…. the excitement makes you feel like one of the owners.

So this year, if you are so inclined, you too can share in the excitement and cheer for a horse running in the Kentucky Derby.

How to enter the First Annual THP Chile Head Stakes.


1.) Pick a horse entered in the Kentucky Derby (one per THP member)
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses

2.) Guess the 2011 Derby winners’ race time. (as a tie breaker)
(for example in 2010 Super Saver won the Kentucky Derby in a time of 2:04:45)

3.) Post your selection and winning race time before 6:00 PM EST Saturday May 7th
(any selections posted or post edits after 6:00 will be disallowed)

The Chile Head who selects the Winner of the Derby will receive an Official Chile-Headlight
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http://www.barryrudolph.com/newtoys/toys/bil-lite.html

(along with assorted Ky Derby 137 collectables)
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If two or more contestants choose the same winning horse, then the Chile Head who’s tie breaker “race time” is closest to the official winning time, will be declared the winner.

If after the tie breaker, two or more contestants are still tied, prizes will be awarded to each contestant.

The winner of the Chile Head Stakes will be posted on Sunday May 8th, sometime after recuperating from my traditional Mint Julep over indulgence.
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Prizes will be shipped out early next week.

I hope those who enter the contest have fun with it ,enjoy the race,
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and share in the excitement when the horses turn for home and the announcer proclaims…
“….And down the stretch they come !!! ”

I Hope to see you in the “Smiling line
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Chili Monsta
Note: A tip of my hat to Spicy Chicken, who's recent THP contest inspired me to run one for Derby Day 2011.
...................UPDATE:.....................

The Post Position for the Derby field were decided yesterday afternoon.
And some of the favorites are not at all pleased with their starting position.

I thought the following stats might be helpful and of interest.

Remember,all selections or changes in either your horse selection and/or race time(tie breaker) must be posted before 6:00pm EST Saturday may 7th.

Winning Kentucky Derby Post Positions

Since 1900, posts 1 and 5 have produced the most Derby winners, although no one has won from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986.

The last winner from post 5 was Funny Cide in 2003.

With a full field of 20 expected to run Saturday in the Kentucky Derby post position figures to play a major factor.

A pair of winners have come from the far outside post 20; the most notable was Big Brown in 2008.

After 1 and 5, that have 12 wins apiece, posts 4, 8, and 10 have produced the second most wins with 11.

Giacomo broke from post 10 in 2005.

Mine That Bird came from post 8.

Post 4 had not produced a winner since Seattle Slew in 1977, until last year when Calvin Borel rode the Derby winner for the second year in a row on Super Saver.

Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:
1 – 12
2 – 9
3 – 8
4 – 10
5 – 12
6 – 6
7 – 8
8 – 10
9 – 4
10 – 10
11 – 3
12 – 3
13 – 4
14 – 2
15 – 3
16 – 3
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 0
20 - 2

 
I'll take "pants on fire."
HS
Don't forget the tie breaker...which your guess for the official time of the winner of the race.
Hint:
If its a rainy day Saturday,and the racetrack is muddy, the times will be slower as a result.
Last years winning time was 2:04:45.
In 1973 Secretariat won the Derby in record time with a 1:59:2/5 which is still the record today.
(In 1973 they still timed the races in fifth of a second.But today its timed in hundredths of a second)
 
Factoring in the weather, the horses, the riders, and that the horse is known as "Lazarus"....

I choose Mucho Macho Man to take the race in a time of 2:02:22.

Macho Macho Man....To win I piiiick Macho Man. (my best rendition of The Village People.)

Thanks for the contest Chili Monsta!
 
Factoring in the weather, the horses, the riders, and that the horse is known as "Lazarus"....

I choose Mucho Macho Man to take the race in a time of 2:02:22.

Macho Macho Man....To win I piiiick Macho Man. (my best rendition of The Village People.)

Thanks for the contest Chili Monsta!
Thanks for entering mmcdermott1_thehothalf
If you end up in the Smiling Line on Saturday evening...you'll be doing a village People Macho/Macho Man dance around the living room.
Good Luck!
 
not a clue as to who might stand a chance to win,

but I'm going for a Midnight Interlude at 2:05:33 (AM). ;)
 
Soldat, 2:02.40
 
...................UPDATE:.....................

The Post Position for the Derby field were decided yesterday afternoon.
And some of the favorites are not at all pleased with their starting position.

I thought the following stats might be helpful and of interest.

Remember,all selections or changes in either your horse selection and/or race time(tie breaker) must be posted before 6:00pm EST Saturday may 7th.

Winning Kentucky Derby Post Positions

Since 1900, posts 1 and 5 have produced the most Derby winners, although no one has won from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986.

The last winner from post 5 was Funny Cide in 2003.

With a full field of 20 expected to run Saturday in the Kentucky Derby post position figures to play a major factor.

A pair of winners have come from the far outside post 20; the most notable was Big Brown in 2008.

After 1 and 5, that have 12 wins apiece, posts 4, 8, and 10 have produced the second most wins with 11.

Giacomo broke from post 10 in 2005.

Mine That Bird came from post 8.

Post 4 had not produced a winner since Seattle Slew in 1977, until last year when Calvin Borel rode the Derby winner for the second year in a row on Super Saver.

Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:
1 – 12
2 – 9
3 – 8
4 – 10
5 – 12
6 – 6
7 – 8
8 – 10
9 – 4
10 – 10
11 – 3
12 – 3
13 – 4
14 – 2
15 – 3
16 – 3
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 0
20 - 2
 
Wow CM this is Great Contest!!!!!!!!:clap:

Still doing my homework.:rolleyes:

Do the odds change?

I don't think anyone else should enter, because I'm going to win anyway.:shocked: :lol:
 
do you mind posting the starting positions?

Don't mind at all....AJ
If you go to the site below, you can get their past performance details , and watch videos of each horse's last few races.
Pretty cool site to study the entries.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/
.....UPDATE...Uncle Mo-SCRATCHED-Out of the Derby
Horse Odds
1 Archarcharch...............10-1
2 Brilliant Speed............30-1
3 Twice the Appeal...........20-1
4 Stay Thirsty...............20-1
5 Decisive Moment............30-1
6 Comma to the Top...........30-1
7 Pants on Fire..............20-1
8 Dialed In..................4-1
9 Derby Kitten...............30-1
10 Twinspired................30-1
11 Master of Hounds..........30-1
12 Santiva...................30-1
13 Mucho Macho Man...........12-1
14 Shakleford................12-1
15 Midnight Interlude........10-1
16 Animal Kingdom............30-1
17 Soldat....................12-1
18 SCRATCHED !!!! (Uncle Mo)
19 Nehro.....................6-1
20 Watch Me Go...............50-1
 
Wow CM this is Great Contest!!!!!!!!:clap:

Do the odds change?
Yes, the odds will begin changing the day of the race,because the actual odds are determined by the betting of the race fans..
The odds that are listed currently are referred to as "The Morning Line"(ML)
And they are just that...the beginning odds for the morning of the race card.... the preliminary odds that will be printed in the race-day program.

In reality, the odds are simply intended to give fans an idea of expected payoffs for the winning horses.
(ie... a $2.00 bet on a horse with 50-1 odds, will pay approximately $102.00...or $50 for every $1.00 you bet, plus the initial $2.00 wager.)
A guy/odds-maker named Mike Battaglia has made the morning line for Churchill Downs,including the Kentucky Derby,for close to 40 years. Most oddsmakers agree the Ky Derby is the toughest race in the nation to predict.

..."It's my opinion of what other people's opinions are going to be" and not necessarily what he thinks the odds should be, Battaglia said. "I have to get into the head of the bettor."
 
I am thinking Twice the appeal breaks quick, grabs the rail and rides it there to a 12 length lead and fades down the stretch winning by a neck...
 
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